MY VIEWS IN TIMES OF INDIA ON BIHAR'S GDP & IN LIVE MINT ON INDIA'S GDP GROWTH RATE

The Times of India story on 09.02.13 : Bihar GSDP growthrate slides to 9.48%

Comments of MILAN K SINHA (PATNA)
9 Feb, 2013, 11:37 PM

''Although the news is disheartening, yet not very unexpected as the growth drivers during the last seven years of present NDA government in a state which could not perform well on growth parameters for more than a decade preceding NDA rule, is showing signs of definite slowing down for more than one explicable reasons. To justify this fall by enumerating reasons with supporting statistics is not going to help score extra mileage, at least economically. In any case, the estimated decline in the growth rate of the state GDP to 9.48% during the current fiscal year from the high of 13.27% registered in 2011-12 is a big set back to the ruling combination in year which is going to be very important politically in view of next Lok Sabha elections. Hence, in order to register a visible turnaround, the government of the day should review its priorities thoroughly, identify the grey areas which affect the quality of governance at large, make the delivery mechanism more effective, transparent and equitable at the ground level, stop wastage of resources at all levels and implement the existing welfare programmes passionately & speedily to improve the quality of life of the poor & disadvantaged population of rural Bihar. Undoubtedly, Bihar has immense potential to register far better rate of economic growth with equitable justice than any state in Indian Union.''

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'Live Mint' story on 11.02.13 : India’s growth slowdown rooted in structural issues

Comments of Milan K Sinha
11 Feb, 2013 10:30 PM

Everyone knows well that our economy is not doing well for quite some time now. Revision and re- revision of estimated Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Fiscal Deficit (FD), Current Account Deficit (CAD) and other economic & financial indices is being worked out as a desperate attempt at the fag end of the year to make the figures look  not that bad to affect the electoral prospect of UPA partners in the ensuing 16th general election. Going by the available economic data coupled with political indecisiveness at the apex level even on economic issues concerning the general well being of millions of common people, it is but natural for the citizens  of the country to be highly apprehensive of further escalation in prices of essential commodities  due to likely imposition of tax burden in the ensuing rail and general budgets to be announced  later in this month. The implication of slow down in economic growth, we know well, is and  would be fatal as far as job creation, implementation of welfare schemes, external debt & interest servicing,investment prospects etc. are concerned. Undoubtedly , this is a big setback for the country. 

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                                                           Will meet again with Open Mind. All the Best.

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MY VIEWS IN ECONOMIC TIMES ON BANKS' OPERATIONAL COST

Economic Times Story on 09.02.13 : Slash operational costs to reduce interest rates: FM P Chidambaram to banks  

Comments of MILAN K SINHA (PATNA)
9 Feb, 2013, 9:16 PM

FM has rightly stressed the point by saying that Banks can attempt to improve their operating efficiency, reducing costs, and pass on the benefit to borrowers through lower interest rates... With more than 14500 branches spread across the country, with the rare privilege of managing the treasury transactions of the government country wide thereby having natural benefit of garnering large chunk of low cost Govt. deposits, with exclusively highest degree of internal human resource career progression upto the level of chairman which takes care of continuity in policy formulations and its execution keeping in view both the short term as well as long term growth perspective of the country' largest bank, SBI is definitely better placed to engage itself much more sincerely and aggressively to make itself the centre of excellence in Indian Banking space. It goes without saying then that the Bank has to i) enlarge the portfolio of CASA(Current A/C & Savings A/C) deposits by perceptibly improving its customer service & reaching out to rural customers in a big way, ii) ensure far better fund/asset management with sizeable reduction in NPA(Non Performing Asset) and iii) reduce the cost of operations by ruthlessly stopping wastage by identifying such areas of avoidable expenses which are still not few in our banking operations including that of SBI. This would definitely set a commendable trend for other banks, particularly PSU banks to emulate for staying healthier in coming days.

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                                                           Will meet again with Open Mind. All the Best.  

MY VIEWS IN TIMES OF INDIA ON AMARTYA SEN'S STATEMENT ON BIHAR RESURRECTION

Comments of MILAN K SINHA (PATNA) in  
The Times Of India dt.05.02.13 9:15 PM

Dear Reader,
Your comment on the article ''Bihar resurrection to help India grow,says Amartya Sen'' is now displayed on timesofindia.com.

''The said event organised to release the book "Resurrection of the State: A Saga of Bihar" went off well with brief but thoughtful address by Amartya Sen. Undoubtedly, the last couple of years has been very encouraging as far as state GDP growth is concerned as emphatically indicated by N.K.Singh. Rajya Sabha MP from the state and a noted bureaucrat, but the basic ground realities related to most basic needs - food, clothing, shelter, health, sanitation, education for the common man of a progressive state, more particularly the disadvantaged section of society have yet to register perceptible improvements to qualify to be termed as a state with better & improved quality of life matching the GDP growth story. The irony has been that every time the comparison is done with the situation that was prevailing during RJD rule in the state which may be correct politically.The question is why to compare with the past at all which people didn't like and hence effected an electoral change for this government to step in. A period of seven years plus, backed by a huge public mandate is not too short a period to perform and excel in a far better manner on most of the issues of common concern including HDI(Human Development Index). Every one would agree that the state has the huge pool of human resources together with basic natural resources necessary for faster development. Now, if the quality of governance at the bottom of the pyramid is made to improve to a much higher level during the rest of the tenure of the present NDA government so that optimum Resource Management is ensured and fruits of growth is distributed equitably in a fair, quicker and transparent manner, the term resurrection of the state of Bihar will have real meaning.''

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                                                        Will meet again with Open Mind. All the Best.

ECONOMIC SLOW DOWN - A BIG SETBACK

                                                                                  By. MILAN K SINHA

    With fresh snow fall and rain in northern part of the country including national capital, the cold weather prolonged its stay for some more days amidst the plethora of dampening news of Indian Economy too suffering from cold with no signs of fast recovery at least during the current fiscal despite certain monetary and fiscal measures taken by RBI and the central government.  Revision and re- revision of estimated Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Fiscal Deficit (FD), Current Account Deficit (CAD) and other economic & financial indices is being worked out as a desperate attempt at the fag end of the year to make the figures look  not that bad to affect the electoral prospect of UPA partners in the ensuing 16th general election. As such, it would be interesting to see what the hard facts/data actually portray:

• The GDP growth is estimated to be at 5% in 2012-13, the lowest in a decade and almost half the rate at which it grew in 2006-07.
• Agriculture sector is estimated to grow at the rate of 1.8% in the current fiscal year where as it had grown at 3.86% in 2011-12.
• Industrial growth is estimated at 3.1% against the previous year growth rate of 3.5%.
• The Services sector which has been the major contributor to GDP growth in the country is also showing a definite slow down and hence estimated to grow at 6.6% where as it grew at the rate of 8.2% in 2011-12. 
• Over 120 lacs young Indians enter the job market every year.
• Manufacturing sector alone witnessed the loss of more than 50 lacs jobs during the period 2005-10.
• The Rate of Savings - one of the biggest economic strengths of our country, registered further  decline and is now estimated at 30%. Savings rate has been falling steadily year after year for some time now.
• Fiscal Deficit is estimated to be at 5.3% plus which  was projected in 2012-13 budget at 5.1% of GDP.
• The  Rates of Inflation, both Food as well as Retail are as high as 13.53% & 10.56% respectively for Dec'12   

      Going by the economic data mentioned herein above coupled with political indecisiveness at the apex level even on economic issues concerning the general well being of millions of common people, it is but natural for the citizens  of the country to be highly apprehensive of further escalation in prices of essential commodities  due to likely imposition of tax burden in the ensuing rail and general budgets to be announced  later in this month. 

     The implication of slow down in economic growth, we know well, is and  would be fatal as far as job creation, implementation of welfare schemes, external debt & interest servicing,investment prospects etc. are concerned. 

    Can a country  having huge human as well as natural resources (with world's largest youth force) allow it to happen like this any more or should it stand up to act decisively & qualitatively individually & collectively  at all levels  to ensure robust and inclusive economic growth in coming years. Simultaneously, the law of the land, it is hoped, would identify  & punish suitably all those political and administrative bigwigs who have been responsible & accountable for this sordid state of economy. 

                               Will meet again with Open Mind. All the Best.

MY VIEWS IN ECONOMIC TIMES ON RESPONSIBILITY OF PSUs & IN LIVE MINT ON DEPOSIT RATES

Economic Times Story on 01.02.13 : PSUs have larger responsibility than private peers: T K A Nair  

Comments of MILAN K SINHA (PATNA)
1 Feb, 2013, 11:48 PM

It is correct that PSUs have larger responsibility compared to their peers in private sector to work towards achieving India's economic goals as asserted by T K A Nair Adviser to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. Yes, PSUs are expected to perform differently keeping in view both the short term as well as long term perspective of country's overall development. But how this will happen remains to be a big question due to various avoidable and unavoidable factors which affect severely the day to day functioning of the PSUs in the country. Still, most of the board of PSUs function as per the whims and fancies of political masters and not as per the laid down rules and procedures in a professional manner. More often than not, the appointment of chairman and directors are done not on merit, but on their affiliation and proximity to power that be and their willingness to toe the unwritten but known defined line. If that is so, how come PSUs compete with the private players in this open market economy and keep themselves really performing in true sense of the term. We can't have parity in performance without having parity in level playing field. Our political class must appreciate that well done is always better than well said.

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'Live Mint' story on 08.01.13 : RBI wants deposit rates as high as possible to generate savings

Comments of Milan K Sinha

29 Jan, 2013 09:49 PM

It would be interesting to see the impact of 0.25% reduction in Repo rate and also  in Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) which is going to increase the money supply and affect the rate of inflation accordingly to some extent, on the pace of economic growth during the next few weeks in the current fiscal. But, in any case,  without ensuring perceptible improvement  in loan delivery mechanism together with  NPA management in Indian banking sector in coming days,   the current rate cuts is going to have minimal effect on GDP growth, even though  all other factors having a definite bearing on economic growth are kept at the same level. Notwithstanding, let us hope for the best.

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                                                               Will meet again with Open Mind. All the Best.